I am HONORED to introduce you to Rick Liebling. He is the first guest blogger on Constructive Grumpiness and I couldn't think of a better person to share this venue with. Rick writes an incredible blog over at rickliebling.com and you also find him sharing his quick thoughts on Twitter. With that...please enjoy his post below, "2010 Winners and Losers."

As we start to shut it down for 2009, it seems like a good time to look back and reflect upon the year that was. But I’m not going to do that. 2009 is not going to go down in the history books as a magical year, so let’s just let it disappear quietly out the side door.

Instead, let’s look ahead to 2010 and what the first year of the new decade might bring. First, let’s start with the winners, those people, places and things that will be on top of the mountain a year from now:

1. New Business Models

From Agency Nil and Victors & Spoils to AllDayBuffet and Anomaly, companies that are willing to take different approaches and approach challenges not as problems but new opportunities are going to win the day. If you’re business model looks the same as it did in 2000, you’re going to be in trouble.

2. The Creatives

Artists, thinkers, writers, poets, philosophers. If you can think creatively you’re going to be in demand. The challenges we are facing are too urgent to keep applying the same tired solutions. Creatives bring beauty and awe and wonder to the party, all things we all are desperately in need of right now.

3. The fleet of foot

Call it nimble, call it agile, call it dynamic, but if you can move quickly you’re going to be the winner in 2010. That means being able to anticipate the needs of the client or consumer; it means stop pussyfooting around in beta; it means learning how to fail fast. There is a lot of uncertainty out there right now, that creates hesitation. Those with the ability to shift on the fly, with conviction, will carry the day.

4. The optimists

Moaning about the recession is sooo 2009. The winners are the ones who are ready to flip the switch, take some chances and make things happen. In some cases, attitude is going to trump talent, or at least be the difference between getting a shot at the business a second time around.

5. The Choreographers

New business model using, quick moving, creative, optimistic businesses are going to need someone who can harness all this dynamic energy. This is where the choreographer comes in. Someone who can align the researchers with the account teams; coordinate the digital team with the ad buys and making sure that it all looks and feels right. No mean feat, but crucial to insuring that an integrated marketing plan delivers the goods.

Now, for the losers:

1. The competent

Nothing wrong with being competent, in fact there used to be a time when competent was a compliment. Not anymore. Competent is barely enough to get you in the door now. You’ve got to be wicked talented, and probably at more than one thing.  The talent pool is too deep, and (hat tip to Thomas Friedman) too wide. You’ve got to be better than the guy down the street and the guy in Bangor, Bangkok or Bangalore.

2. The Stand-alone solutionist

It’s not enough to understand how your particular area of expertise (traditional advertising, PR, digital, etc.) can solve a client’s problem. You have to understand the entire marketing mix and be able to integrate your expertise into the larger solution. Bolting on some hacky tactic at the end just doesn’t cut it anymore.

3. The Owners and the Anarchists

The only thing crazier than thinking you own your brand is declaring that the consumer owns your brand. The answer of course is that you share joint custody.  Brands that aren’t willing to embrace consumer participation and engage fans will see their market share take a hit. But the short-term gain of crowdsourcing your logo or Super Bowl commercial can negatively impact long term brand equity as well. Work in conjunction with consumers, but understand their weaknesses as well.

4. Freeconomists

Yes, information wants to be free, but at some point all those Social Media networks and cool app developers need to start turning a profit.  We live and work in a marketplace built on commerce. It may be unseemly, but at some point money needs to start changing hands and in 2010 clients are going to want to see how all these conversations are actually moving product.

5. The Pretenders

Whole lot of ‘rock stars,’ ‘gurus,’ ‘experts’ and ‘divas’ out there. Everybody has there clever little gimmick and ‘smarter than you’ attitude. That’s not going to get it done in 2010. Too many legit smarties out there for the wannabes to get away with their schtick anymore.  If you’ve been bluffing your way through meetings, it’s time to bone up and get in the game for real.   

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